Retreat to Move Forward
Same problem, new angle
I usually write about what I’m learning about the postsecondary education system and paths to good jobs. And I typically shy away from writing about the startup journey largely because so many people already write about how to do startups well. I’m not convinced that (a) I have much to add, and (b) it’s all that interesting (at least compared to the work of getting all students to good life outcomes).
However, today is an exception. We had our first-ever Willow retreat this past month!
By that, I mean that Ryan (Chief Product & Technology Officer) flew (kindly) up to Vermont, and we spent most of a week together, stepping back to focus on what was working, what wasn’t, and what to do next. Roughly 40% of our time was spent hiking or outside, 40% in front of a whiteboard, and 20% talking to some of our closest advisors. It was awesome.
Our theory of change is that if we can help students enroll in high-quality postsecondary education programs (and potentially more importantly, avoid the bad ones), then not only will we help learners achieve better life outcomes, but at scale we can shift the economic and social mobility of entire communities. We believe there is immense, unmet demand for students, families, and those who love them to understand which programs are high-quality and why, and to expand the scope beyond just college programs.
We are playing to win. And it’s interesting to recognize that we don’t have to win the market to achieve our impact goals. When legacy platforms start losing school partners to Willow, they will be forced to care about and support students in navigating to (1) quality programs and (2) professional programs (not only college programs).
College has always promised a better future. For many students, that holds true. But not enough. And good news: we no longer need blanket promises that don’t hold up; we have data.
So now, the right question isn’t college or not college; it’s which quality college and professional programs will most likely lead to the best outcomes for each student.
With that, here’s the unfiltered view from our whiteboards:
What’s working
Product Development
National Database Expansion: We are expanding our national database to include both college and professional programs. Today, we have over 220k programs in our database (professional programs are most robust in Colorado & Nashville, and we’re about to release NYC). This allows students to explore a wider range of postsecondary options, including apprenticeships, certificates, and boot-camps, ensuring they can find high-quality and career-connected programs.
AI Career & College Coach, Alma: We have built an AI coach for both students and counselors that is context-aware of a student’s profile (interests, goals, etc) when providing recommendations, coaching, and support.
Engaging Career Exploration: We have been planning, designing and getting feedback on a best-in-class career exploration platform for Gen-Z.
Early partners
New pilot programs launched: Following the success of our pilot program at DSST Public Schools last year, we have expanded to support all DSST schools this year, Rocky Mountain Prep, and Persist Nashville in the past 6 months. We are planning to have 8-12 pilot partners going into the fall semester and plan to work in both district and charter schools as well as strong nonprofits doing postsecondary access and persistence work.
A strong community of practice: In addition, fantastic partners are driving forward good work in postsecondary education, economic mobility, and career-connected learning. We admire and value the work with Colorado Succeeds, Gary Community Ventures, America Succeeds, CrossPurpose, ActivateWork, Ednium, AdvanceEDU, Prosperity Denver Fund, and others to create a more effective postsecondary system for learners who need it the most.
Victor Hugo: “No army can withstand the strength of an idea whose time has come.”
The significant economic and social factors causing a needed rethink in postsecondary education couldn’t be more in our favor.
Students and families (most importantly), educators, policy makers, and funders are all very hungry to ensure better quality and outcomes.
Challenges and Concerns
Low product engagement among students and counselors last year
Hypotheses about why:
The early MVP product isn’t strong enough in the core experience
Not enough functionality in the core tool (new features added/coming soon AI, search, career videos/exploration)
Schools are using multiple platforms
We had technical issues on our initial rollout with DSST this fall that set us back
The national rollout of the DOE’s new online FASFA application had a huge impact on counseling offices, students and families across the country
High initial interest, lukewarm conversion into early-adopter paid pilots
Hypotheses about why:
Product isn’t built out enough and/or is missing product market fit
Focused on the wrong value proposition (e.g. application management vs student psychometric assessment and career exploration)
Schools are risk-adverse to changing their application management tool
Wrong beachhead market?: The CSGF market has recently adopted another application management tool
Too high pricing
Product functionality in application management is not there yet
Common App integration is very expensive ~$60-80k+ and slow (9 months)
Very lean revenue/expense line of sight until we sign more pilot partners or take on more funding
Decisions
After lots of good debate and discussion, we decided on the next steps we’re excited about!
Shift product development roadmap to deprioritize application management improvement for the next ~4-6 months in favor of:
Willow Assessment 2.0: Psychometric + Career interest + Counseling questions to provide a best-in-class student profile. Today's assessment and profiles are a ‘B-,’ and we aim to make it a solid ‘A.’
Why? We’re hearing from current and potential partners the need for a strong assessment that is far more usable for students, counselors and schools. YouScience has a really great assessment and report, but the length to administer and understand the results isn’t worth the value it seeks to provide.
Career exploration for Gen-Z: We’re using curated short-form videos from social media to allow students to explore different careers, to hear about the day in a life, what’s great, what sucks, and everything in between. Then, give students more detailed information about market-rate demand, salary information, and education pathways.
Why? Research shows that having a clear ‘why’ and goal for postsecondary education makes it more likely that students will complete their program. Learning through media formats that are relatable and digestible leads to deeper synthesis and internalization.
AI-first: Continue to embed Alma, our AI career and college coach throughout the product.
Test beachhead markets with goal of validating 1 or 2
CSGF - IMHO the best, most thoughtful, rigorous and fun people to work with writ large.
Alternative high schools - i.e. Credit recovery schools. Really important mission work where personalization, quality planning, and strong next steps (especially professional programs) are important
CTE (Career & Technical) focused high schools - Strong value placed on good jobs in a local context.
Texas CMOs and districts - best incentive / policy landscape.
Others: Scholarship organizations? Community colleges?
Our High-level Strategy:
Continue to build out product in close partnership with 8-12 high-will, high-skill pilot partners this coming school year
This spring, open up an “Early Access” phase for up to 50-60 early-adopter partners
When Willow is driving consistent impact for students and schools (~12-18 months?), scale
We would love to hear your thoughts, so please stay in touch! I read and think deeply about all of the comments, feedback and pushes we get.
We still have room for ~3-5 more pilot partners who are passionate about supporting all of their students in finding a quality next step after high-school!
Article(s):
I’ve been thinking about 2 articles this month that may, at first glance, seem like separate issues but are inextricably linked.
Colorado ASCENT Dual Enrollment Program The program is under scrutiny due to rising costs and insufficient data on its effectiveness. Lawmakers have capped enrollment and mandated a comprehensive study. Critics highlight its fragmented structure and misalignment with workforce goals, while supporters point to the early college experience it offers students.
“There are valid questions about whether this program is actually helping the students it is intended to help.”
“Without solid data, it’s hard to justify the program’s expansion.”
American Student Assistance (ASA) Report ASA reveals that 48 out of 50 states (including, you guessed it: Colorado) lack the data systems to address legislators' questions. With data systems, we could create aligned incentives for K-12, postsecondary and workforce. The report advocates for using data to drive economic mobility and prepare students for careers. Implementing robust data systems could help justify the continuation and expansion of programs like Colorado ASCENT by providing clear evidence of their value and impact.
“Education is an economic investment, for both students and states.”
“To maximize the return on investment and ensure that education drives economic mobility, states need K-12 and postsecondary systems to prioritize and improve the outcomes that matter most for students’ success in life after school.”
The good news? There are some good folks working on this in CO.
For more information, visit the full articles on Chalkbeat and the ASA Report
Poll of the month
Last Month’s Poll
(I haven’t forgotten!)
Onward,
James