Predictions for 2025 with Michael Horn

Our January Purposeful Pathways conversation

Earlier this month, I had the privilege of hosting Michael Horn, author of the national bestseller "Job Moves" and co-founder of the Clayton Christensen Institute, for a discussion about the future of education and career pathways. For those who couldn't join us (or want to revisit the conversation), here are some of my big takeaways:

Michael’s 2025 Education & Workforce Predictions:

Michael shared his predictions for 2025 including:

• Growing momentum for apprenticeships, particularly in non-traditional sectors like healthcare

• Increased focus on work-based experiential learning at all education levels

• Less linear education-to-career pathways becoming the norm

• Continued pressure on traditional colleges as students seek alternatives

Skills-Based Hiring Skepticism

Gasp! I’ve become a quiet skeptic about the promise of skills-based hiring. My argument (as I overview in our conversation) is:

1. It’s too complicated. And,

2. I don’t trust employers’ better angels, except in the most dire of labor shortages.

But don’t take my word for it, from the Harvard Business School: Managing the Future of Work:

“For all its fanfare, the increased opportunity promised by SkillsBased Hiring was borne out in not even 1 in 700 hires last year.”

I was somewhat surprised and interested to learn that Michael is also a skeptic, for a similar reason to the complexity argument. He shared:

“Employers, in particular, do not know the skills at the heart of their most successful employees."

Instead of focusing solely on skills, he advocates for looking at concrete evidence of tasks and experiences candidates have successfully completed.

The Future of Apprenticeships

A fascinating discussion on why apprenticeships haven't scaled despite significant funding and interest. Michael shared key barriers including:

• Funding focused on program establishment rather than hiring

• Lack of intermediary organizations to de-risk youth apprenticeships

• Need for new institutional models, particularly in apprenticeship degrees

Does CTE need a rebrand?

We had an important conversation with past guest Bailey Cato Czupryk from TNTP about rebranding CTE as "career-connected learning" - a broader, more inclusive approach that moves beyond traditional vocational education.

Practical Takeaways for Educators

Five concrete strategies for implementing career-connected learning:

1. Build experiential learning into the curriculum

2. Start career exposure early (middle school)

3. Focus on helping students understand why current learning matters for their future

4. Create time and space for career exploration

5. Support students who are interested in professional programs (not just college)

Looking Ahead

The conversation reinforced our purpose at Willow, which is to help students make informed choices about their futures. As Michael noted, it's not about pushing everyone toward college or trades but rather ensuring students have the exposure and information needed to make meaningful, quality choices aligned with their purpose, interests, and goals.

If you missed the full conversation, or are looking to relive it, you can find it here.

Join Our Next Conversation

Don't miss our upcoming Purposeful Pathways conversation with Dr. Mallory Dwinal-Palisch, CEO of Craft Education and founder of Reach University, where we'll dive deep into apprenticeships and their potential to transform postsecondary education.

Onward,

James